Resources · Worksheet
The new-customer line
Put new customers per month next to revenue and find out whether a flat topline is stability or a back book covering a fall.
The question
“Our revenue has been flat for months. Is that stability, or is something slipping?”
The assignment
Count new customers per month for the last 24 months from first-order dates in your store, and put that line next to monthly revenue. If one falls while the other holds, your back book is covering for your front door.
At the subscription brand in the article, revenue held flat while new customers fell from about 282 a month to about 90, because renewals from older cohorts covered the gap. The topline lagged by about a year. This worksheet compares the two lines at three points and tells you how long your back book can hide a fall.
Numbers in the readout that are not yours come from the article. Fields marked optional sharpen the answer but are not needed for it.
- $
- $
- $
- %
What your numbers say
Still needed: New customers per month, 24 months ago; New customers per month, 12 months ago; New customers per month, the last full month; Revenue, 24 months ago; Revenue, 12 months ago; Revenue, the last full month; Share of orders from existing customers last month.
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