Alen Capelja.
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Kidney-health supplement & education brand · Wellness, subscription

Flat revenue and a quiet drop in new customers.

A subscription brand where renewals were hiding a steady fall in new customers.

282 → ~90

new customers a month, store order count, early 2024 to mid-2026

4 to 5 months

median subscriber tenure, against a mean of 7 to 9

37 of 102

subscribers with a declined card the failed-payment flow was reaching

12 of 58

missed failed-card subscribers who renewed after one email series, no control group

37 of 102 failed-card subscribers reached

Subscribers with declined cards at the failed-payment flow audit

Revenue at this kidney-health supplement and education brand had held roughly flat month to month, and paid and email both reported healthy returns. Counted by first purchase date, new customers had fallen by more than half since early 2024. About 70% of orders were on a subscription, so renewals from the large 2024 and mid-2025 cohorts were covering the gap.

I took the subscription share from the order line items and measured tenure three ways, because they disagree: a median of 4 to 5 months, a mean of 7 to 9, and about 12 if current churn held steady. The cohort curve shows why. About 18% cancel in month one, 35% by month three and half by month five.

The six subscription flows I wrote follow those months, with checkpoints at day 90 and month six and a save series that offers pause or skip before any discount. They went live on 12 August 2026. The failed-payment flow was reaching 37 of 102 subscribers with a declined card, because its check ran a moment before the store wrote the status. A one-off series to 58 it had missed brought 12 back, with no control group.

  • Two welcome flows on one list: Both welcome email flows triggered on the master list, and the SMS welcome fired on any signup, including back-in-stock alerts, with Smart Sending off. Nothing kept one person out of two welcome sequences at once.
  • Deliverability is a segment decision: After a bad bounce day, bulk sends moved to people who had opened, clicked or ordered recently, never-engaged profiles stayed out for good, and recent bouncers went on a rolling 14-day cooldown instead of permanent suppression.
  • 6 subscription flows live
  • Tenure measured three ways
  • 12 of 58 failed-card subscribers back
RetentionSubscriptionMeasurement

The question

“Our revenue has been flat for months. Is that stability, or is something slipping?”

The assignment

Count new customers per month for the last 24 months from first-order dates in your store, and put that line next to revenue.

The pause option added in July didn't reduce cancellations. Only 2 of the 175 subscriptions that paused had pressed cancel first, so it became a second way out, and I've recommended offering pause only at the cancel step. Flow lift against the cohort curve hasn't been measured yet.

Yewgo client work, orchestrated by me end to end: strategy, analytics, flows and measurement. The brand runs its own store and campaigns.

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